My Top 5 Science Fiction Predictions

Ontario is home to Robert J. Sawyer, “the dean of Canadian science fiction” as described by The Ottawa Citizen, and the man The New York Times calls a master of “bold scientific extrapolation.” Rob is a Hugo and Nebula award winner; this is like winning the Academy Award for scifi for those of us who love the genre.  But you may also know him from FlashForward–his work that was turned into an ABC TV series.  Not content with just fiction, Rob has also consulted for innovators such as Google, Motorola, NASA, and DARPA.

What we love about Rob is that he opens up people’s minds about cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, stem-cell research, and nanotechnology, exploring the societal impact they are going to have.

So in honour of his much-anticipated new novel Triggers, we asked Rob to tell us about his top five favourite innovations that were conceived of first in the minds of science fiction writers.

Robert Sawyerby Robert J. Sawyer

Science fiction’s job isn’t to predict the future. Rather, it spreads out for us the smorgasbord of all possible futures—it’s up to us to pick the one we want. Still, it is true that science fiction has presaged many of the technologies we use today. Here are some of my favourites:

The Internet

It’s a silly canard that Al Gore claimed to have invented the Internet. Of course, he never said that. It’s an equally silly claim that science fiction failed to predict the Internet. In fact, it did so repeatedly. The oldest reference to something like the Internet was probably Mark Twain’s “telectroscope,” which he proposed in a 1898 short story:

The improved “limitless-distance” telephone was presently introduced, and the daily doings of the globe made visible to everybody, and audibly discussable too, by witnesses separated by any number of leagues.

Something even closer to our modern Internet—and the World Wide Web that supervenes upon it—was put forth in Murray Leinster’s short story “A Logic Named Joe,” first published in 1946. He predicts massively interlinked computers providing answers to questions on any subject at any time from anywhere. Leinster’s narrator, an aw-shucks repairman, describes technology eerily reminiscent of what we now rely on 66 years later:

You know the logics setup. You got a logic in your house. It looks like a vision receiver used to, only it’s got keys instead of dials and you punch the keys for what you wanna get … Say you punch “Station SNAFU” on your logic. Relays in the tank take over an’ whatever vision-program SNAFU is telecastin’ comes on your logic’s screen. Or you punch “Sally Hancock’s Phone” an’ the screen blinks an’ sputters an’ you’re hooked up with the logic in her house an’ if somebody answers you got a vision-phone connection. But besides that, if you punch for the weather forecast or who won today’s race at Hialeah or who was mistress of the White House durin’ Garfield’s administration or what is PDQ and R sellin’ for today, that comes on the screen too … everything you wanna know or see or hear, you punch for it an’ you get it.

And really, after all, is “Joe” any sillier a name than “Google”?

Tablet Computers

These days, many of us rely on tablet computers including Apple’s iPad and Research in Motion’s PlayBook. Ironically, the computing company whose name we don’t associate with such devices was the one to first vividly propose them. The astronauts in the 1968 movie 2001: A Space Odyssey are clearly seen using tablet computers that bear the IBM logo.

Last year, I got to see 2001 on the big screen for the first time in decades at the TIFF Bell Lightbox in Toronto and was amused to note that IBM even almost had the right name; you can just make it out when seeing the movie that big: “NewsPad.”

The “pad” name was also presaged by Star Trek: The Next Generation, in which Captain Picard and his crew constantly used tablet computers called PADDs (for “Personal Access Display Devices”). The distinctive look for Trek’s simulated tablet-computer displays, designed by Mike Okuda, is now commonly seen on iPads and Android tablets sported by geeks: there are apps to make them mimic the ones from the Enterprise.

In the novel version of 2001, Arthur C. Clarke describes one of the astronauts using a tablet computer:

When he tired of official reports and memoranda and minutes, he would plug in his foolscap-size newspad into the ship’s information circuit and scan the latest reports from Earth. In a few milliseconds he could see the headlines of any newspaper he pleased … one could spend an entire lifetime doing nothing but absorbing the ever-changing flow of information.

In other words, science fiction even predicted that surfing the web could become an enormous time sink. See, we warned you! Now, if you’ll just kindly read on …

Robots

There’s a debate going on among science-fiction fandom right now: should Martin Scorsese’s wonderful movie Hugo be nominated for the Hugo Award—which coincidentally happens to be the name of the science-fiction field’s top honour? The question hinges on whether there’s anything science fictional in the film. Those who want to argue that there is point to the wonderful automaton that Hugo Cabret and his friends repair and restore in the movie. But, in fact, such clockwork mechanical men really did exist in 1931, when the movie is set—although, of course, they lacked any volition or autonomy; they were really just very elaborate windup toys.

But today we do have real robots—everything from the Roomba that vacuums your floor to the rovers we send tooling around Mars. Not only did science fiction give us the notion of robots, it even gave them their name, which comes from the 1920 play R.U.R. by playwright Karel Capek; the initials in the title stand for Rossum’s Universal Robots, and his play deals with servant androids that rebel against their human masters—a science-fictional prediction that hasn’t come true … yet.

The most-famous robot stories in all of science fiction are those by Isaac Asimov (who coined the term “robotics”). When Honda built a walking-and-dancing robot in 2000, it was named Asimo. We’re sometimes told that’s merely a coincidence, and that the robot’s name is an acronym for “Advance Step in Innovative MObility.” Riiiight. In Arthur C. Clarke’s 2001, the super computer was named HAL (also supposedly a pretty dubious acronym, this time for “Heuristic ALgorithmic”). But the initials HAL are alphabetically one step ahead of IBM. Clarke denies that was intentional—and I believe him … about as much as I believe Honda.

Biotechnology

Most scholars have come to agree with British critic Brian Aldiss, who contends that the first work of science fiction was Mary Shelley’s 1818 novel Frankenstein, Or the Modern Prometheus. Its main character is a scientist—Dr. Victor Frankenstein—who is applying what he knows of chemistry and biology to a scientific problem: how to reverse the putrefaction and decay that occurs after death.

(This means that science fiction’s bicentennial will be upon us in six short years. I don’t know about you, but I’m planning a party!)

If Shelley was science fiction’s grandmother, then its father was H.G. Wells, and he took the biotech ball and ran with it, producing his haunting 1896 novel of chimera life forms, The Island of Doctor Moreau. And Aldous Huxley gave us one of our first tastes of genetic engineering with his humans of various castes grown in glass containers, in his 1932 novel Brave New World.

It’s often been suggested that this will be the biotech century, and perhaps it will. But science fiction got there well in advance, and the fact that we are proceeding with prudence and caution in these areas is something we have science fiction to thank for.

The Future

When people talk about all the things science fiction correctly predicted, they often cite moon landings and submarines (suggested by Jules Verne) or surveillance technology (made famous by George Orwell).

But I think the most important thing science fiction predicted is that there will in fact be a future. Ever since the advent of nuclear weapons (predicted in such detail in the magazine Astounding Stories that the FBI demanded a recall of one of its issues—a demand the publisher refused), through the cold war and the war on terror, to now as we stand at the brink of catastrophic climate change, science fiction has always said that humankind does have a future that stretches ahead of us for hundreds, thousands, and even millions of years.

Whether those visions will come true remains to be seen; the job of science-fiction writers was merely to put options on the table. But the possibility that the human journey has only just begun is the most wondrous prediction of all.

======

Robert J. Sawyer’s latest novel is Triggers, from Penguin Canada.

http://www.penguin.ca

http://www.sfwriter.com

Twitter: @RobertJSawyer

Categories: Bio economy and clean tech, Digital Media, Health Technology, Pharmaceutical, Uncategorized Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The opinions posted in this blog are not those of the Ontario government nor its staff, but those of the guest blogger.

18 Responses to “My Top 5 Science Fiction Predictions”

  1. Kevin M Hayes

    04/05/2012 @ 15:08 pm

    You missed the earlier prediction of the tablet/data pad by Asimov in “the Foundation” (first of the original three volumes of the Foundation Trilogy) He depicts Hari Seldon, or maybe it was one of his students, accessing information or running some quick psychohistorical calculations on a hand held comp-screen.

    1. chanel ceramic watches

      04/06/2012 @ 0:16 am

      Relly good post. i like this blog.

  2. Afewgoodmen

    04/05/2012 @ 23:28 pm

    This is a nice talk from the legendary Robert J Sawyer. I am a hopeless fan of his. These are very terrific predictions with great insights from the master himself. One of my bucket list is to have an autograph book from Robert. And also have a lunch with him. Me hope I achieve that!

    Great insights on science fiction and the future. Simply elucidating!

    1. Camping Normandie

      11/14/2012 @ 10:04 am

      For the autograph book I already have one :) Concerning the lunch with Mr Sawyer I hope it’ll be soon too !

      Btw interesting article about one of my favs sf writer !

  3. Robert J. Sawyer

    04/06/2012 @ 17:14 pm

    Sorry, Kevin M Hayes, but your memory is failing you. What Asimov described is a handheld pocket calculator with buttons and what sounds like a single-line red LED display at the top, not an iPad-like page-sized touch-screen multimedia device hooked into the equivalent of the World Wide Web. When Asimov introduced the device you refer to in FOUNDATION (chapter 3), he wrote:

    \Seldon removed his calculator pad from the pouch at his belt. Men said he kept one beneath his pillow for use in moments of wakefulness. Its gray, glossy finish was slightly worn by use. Seldon’s nimble fingers, spotted now with age, played along the files and rows of buttons that filled its surface. Red symbols glowed out from the upper tier.\

    All best wishes.

    Robert J. Sawyer

  4. predictions for 2012

    07/05/2012 @ 19:34 pm

    Great predictions indeed! I was thinking the same thing… Technology is increasing at a rapid pace.

  5. Sklep komputerowy

    07/27/2012 @ 9:24 am

    do not worry, Apple will get patent on innovation, and will block the development of technology in court :P

  6. Paige Brown

    08/05/2012 @ 13:49 pm

    One more thing fiction writers predicted and yet to be invented is Time Machine and I am waiting for the day when time machine will be invented. Anyways very nice article, really engaging.

  7. Isaac Single

    08/24/2012 @ 13:40 pm

    I love SciFi movies because I love technology and have a great interest in new technologies and gadgets.

    Paige Brown you are are absolutely right Time Machine yet to be invented and it will be the biggest invention of all time.

    Hey Robert can you please tell me who has predicted the concept of Time Machine?

  8. Sydney Maison

    09/08/2012 @ 6:38 am

    It seems very funny to me the Time Machine.. HaHaHa….
    Paige Brown and Isaac Single do you really think that time travel is possible? I cant believe this foolish thing and for me it seems impossible. I know science has done many impossible things possible and did many miracle but its the limit the time machine. HaHaHa really funny I cant believe there are people that are waiting for non sense time machine to be invented.

  9. ROBERTS

    09/22/2012 @ 18:24 pm

    I have seen a bollywood movie KRRISH, In this movie they have invented a computer that is capable of showing the future. Isn’t it so funny? A computer that can show your future. HaHa…
    But it was great fun to watch this movie and the Computer capable of showing future. If it will be invented ever in reality I will definitely going to buy one.

  10. Jessica

    10/08/2012 @ 0:58 am

    Great article, seems you have done lot of research before this post. I agree that most of the sci-fi writers have powerful insight and prediction, but science never steal or copy any idea from any novel or movie. Science had or has its own systematic research to achieve or improve the technology. Leonardo Da Vinci Had sketched some engineering instruments which were just impossible thinking that day but, today we are enjoying most of them. So, nothing is impossible in science.

  11. Miguel Johnson

    10/24/2012 @ 8:28 am

    Thank you for a good post. If you go through the history of science fiction writing, in the first phase it was pure imagination mixed with observation and then slowly scientific theories came into the writing. Time machine is a fiction or story of the first phase, it was more of a social story than sci-fi one. May be when we reach the technological brilliance of inventing time machine we will not want it at all.

  12. Price Robert

    01/15/2013 @ 8:51 am

    A very good and great post. As mentioned in some of the posts, these are great insights. I would also love to see a time machine to be invented. Though I understand this is illogical,it would be great if this happens :)

  13. Ava Bailey

    02/08/2013 @ 18:17 pm

    To me the most funny thing with sci-fi is how it become decades after it’s written. When reading or watching 70s sci-fi books or movies I am amazed to see how people or at least authors used to see the future (now) back then…
    However some authors wrote things that actually became true decades after. Can we say they influenced the future?? I don’t know…

  14. ZOE PHILLIPS

    03/15/2013 @ 15:58 pm

    It was really a very good and informative blog.Time machine is a fiction or story of the first phase, it was more of a social story than sci-fi one. May be when we reach the technological brilliance of inventing time machine we will not want it at all. Great predictions indeed! I was thinking the same thing… Technology is increasing at a rapid pace.Thanks for sharing.

  15. Nail

    05/20/2013 @ 3:54 am

    Nice read! I really like your view on science fiction that “it spreads out for us the smorgasbord of all possible futures”. I’m a believer in the multiverse theory and I think that every possible future does exist in a parallel universe. So, just like Schrodinger’s cat, we will both self-destruct ourselves and overcome all the difficulties in front of us in the same “time”

Leave a reply

 

Have an idea for a blog post? We’d love to hear it. Please let us know your blog ideas.

If you require a French or English translation of blog comments, please submit your request
through the Contact Us form, and specify the URL of the page(s) containing the comments.