LARGE-SCALE COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONS AND DATA ASSIMILATION OF EARTHQUAKE FAULT SYSTEMS 

University of Western Ontario

While earthquakes are rare in southern Ontario, the actual risk is hard to estimate. Research at the University of Western Ontario will improve the ability to forecast earthquakes not only in Ontario and Canada but worldwide.

Dr. Kristy Tiampo is leading a team that will compile data on small earthquakes from ground instruments as well as data on changes in the earth's surface recorded by satellite. Using powerful computers at Western, the team will develop a large-scale model of fault lines and then feed this extensive database into the system. Through sophisticated modeling, researchers will get an indication of when and where earthquakes are likely and how strong they might be. An Early Researcher Award is assisting Dr. Tiampo to move forward with this work.

"The frequency and other characteristics of small earthquakes act as sensors for what's going on underground, and deformities in Earth's crust reflect the build-up of stress underneath," explains Dr. Tiampo. "By integrating all this data into our computerized fault model, we'll get a better understanding of earthquake physics and the magnitude and timing of seismic events. We'll be better able to quantify the risk of an earthquake."

Researcher: Dr. Kristy Tiampo